Cross-Strait Dynamics

Entering the twenty-first century, the Taiwan Strait once again became one of the most closely watched flashpoints in world politics. The relative equilibrium of the late 1990s — a tacit framework built upon the 1992 talks and Lee Teng-hui's cautious pragmatism — gave way under the weight of three interlocking shifts: Taiwan's consolidating democratic identity, the People's Republic of China's accelerating military and economic power, and the gradual erosion of the post-Cold War status quo in the Indo-Pacific.

Chen Shui-bian's presidency from 2000 to 2008 opened the era on a note of confrontation. Beijing refused to engage with the DPP government, while Chen's constitutional referenda and rhetorical moves toward Taiwan-centered identity met with fierce warnings from across the strait. The Anti-Secession Law of March 2005 codified the People's Republic's standing threat of force against any move toward formal independence, triggering the largest street protest Taipei had seen in years. Ma Ying-jeou's two terms after 2008 brought a dramatic thaw: direct flights, tourism, the 2010 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, and a historic meeting with Xi Jinping in Singapore in 2015. Yet the same rapprochement sparked the 2014 Sunflower Movement, in which students occupied the Legislative Yuan for twenty-four days in protest against a services trade pact many feared would bind Taiwan too tightly to an authoritarian neighbor.

The Tsai Ing-wen era from 2016 saw relations freeze anew. Beijing suspended official dialogue, intensified diplomatic isolation campaigns, and — from 2020 onward — launched near-daily air and naval incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ. The August 2022 visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi triggered the largest live-fire exercises around the island in the history of the People's Liberation Army, encircling Taiwan from multiple directions and demonstrating a capability for blockade. Meanwhile, global semiconductor dependence on TSMC, the war in Ukraine, and U.S.–China strategic rivalry elevated the strait from a regional dispute to a matter of planetary consequence.

This volume traces the turning points of cross-strait relations since 2000. Through legislation, treaties, protest manifestos, and defense white papers, it examines how successive Taiwanese governments — and an ever more self-aware electorate — have navigated between economic interdependence, existential threat, and the enduring question of what kind of future the island is willing to accept.